Farmers could continue facing higher fertilizer costs for several more years as geopolitical instability and tight global supplies put pressure on the market.
A new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange projects fertilizer prices will remain above levels seen before the Iran war through 2028.
CoBank economist Jacqui Fatka says continued instability in the Middle East, tight global fertilizer supplies and limited phosphate availability are among the factors expected to keep prices elevated through 2027 and potentially beyond.
The Middle East plays a significant role in the global fertilizer market, supplying more than 60 million tons of fertilizer and fertilizer raw materials each year. The region also accounts for more than 30% of global urea exports.
That concentration leaves fertilizer markets particularly vulnerable to disruptions involving production, transportation or exports from the region.
Higher fertilizer costs could continue putting pressure on crop production expenses at a time when farmers are already managing tight margins and uncertainty in commodity markets. Fertilizer represents a significant input cost for corn and other crops with high nutrient requirements.
The CoBank outlook suggests producers may need to continue factoring elevated fertilizer expenses into planting and purchasing decisions for the next several growing seasons.