Jan 16, 2020

Rural economy strengthening with trade developments

Posted Jan 16, 2020 2:57 PM

By NICK GOSNELL

Hutch Post

HUTCHINSON, Kan. — The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for January released Thursday climbed to its highest level since June 2018.

"Things are looking up for rural areas, especially given that we're going to see the USMCA, that's the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, we'll see that passed by the Senate and signed by the President." economist Ernie Goss said. "That's going to be good and also the phase one signing of the agreement with China on trade."

It's not that the good news is that great, but the bad news seems to have slowed for now.

"Agricultural commodity prices are still not where we'd like to see them," Goss said. "Agricultural income, even for 2020, is not going to be as strong as we saw before the downturn. We're probably going to see the administration, the Trump administration, providing more support for the agricultural sector in 2020."

Kansas Rural Mainstreet Index was strong at 57.0. Fifty is growth neutral.

"We've got very low interest rates by the Federal Reserve," said Goss. "They're very accommodative for farm loans. Although, we did see bank loans to the farms go to their lowest level in seven years. It's difficult to tell, was that because of fewer applications from the farms, or was it because of denials by the bankers? We'll have to wait and see."

Checking deposits in Rural Mainstreet banks were strong in December, up nearly nine points from a year ago, according to the rural bankers surveyed.